Several American political commentators have wondered in recent weeks whether there will be an “October surprise” between now and the election.
In the United States, an “October Surprise” is a current event, planned or spontaneous, that affects voter choices. It leaves less time for politicians to take corrective action. These surprises can thus change the course of the presidential election.
The term was coined during the 1980 presidential election when 52 Americans were held hostage in Tehran after an Iranian mob attacked the American embassy during the fall of the Shah of Iran by Americans.
Republican candidate Ronald Reagan feared that the deal to free the American hostages would give incumbent President Jimmy Carter enough votes to win re-election.
The Reagan campaign made its suspicions public, so voters would see the event as a political ploy by Carter to win the election. William Casey, Reagan’s campaign manager, was the first to raise the idea of an “October Surprise”. Casey—Reagan’s future CIA director—launched an “intelligence operation” against Carter to uncover such a move. He even called on former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger for a helping hand.
Prevent the hostages from being released
In fact, there is reason to believe the opposite will happen. There have been allegations that the Reagan campaign actively opposed the release of the hostages. Abolhassan Banisadr, a former Iranian president, said the Reagan campaign had reached an agreement with Tehran to delay the release of the hostages. was it true
Inevitably, the hostages were released within minutes of Reagan’s inauguration as President of the United States in 1981. The information on the American side is confirmed by former Texas Governor Ben Barnes, who claims to have accompanied Governor John Connally. , a Reagan ally, on a secret mission to several Middle Eastern capitals. According to Barnes, Connally asked his partners to inform Tehran that Iran would have to wait until after the presidential election to release the American hostages.
Despite this, two congressional investigations into the allegations concluded that there were no plans to delay the release of the hostages. So no October surprise!
The Middle East: Presidential Elections from 1980 to 2024
The Middle East is once again in the presidential campaign news. If the Trump campaign were to get involved in something similar, wonder if it would be related to the release of the Israeli hostages, seven of whom are also American citizens.
Donald Trump is even more immoral and unscrupulous than Ronald Reagan, whose presidency was tainted by the Iran-Contra or Irangate political-military scandal, this time confirmed by a congressional investigation. But that’s another story.
